I think Nintendo would be smart to release the next Wii in 2011 at the five year mark. Revealing it at this years E3 could drive Wii sales lower this Christmas and theirfor negatively affect their profits. However I agree a new console is needed in the near future, Nintendo sales are down but lets remember that they are still selling more then the competition.
So Nintendo can maintain its present course for another year (Lowering sales) and then launch a new platform for next Christmas. Or they could accelerate the process and reveal their new console this year driving sales into a tail spin and then launch a new platform next fall. Either way I think 2011 will be when the next Wii launches.
Plus Pachter, the 3DS is launching this winter or early next year. It would not make sense for Nintendo to launch two new platforms during the same year. My best bet will be 3DS in November 2010 and the next home platform November 2011!
-JC7
"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer
