slowmo said:
Reasonable said:
slowmo said:
JGarret said:
@slowmo
I agree, I don´t think Sony will cut the PS3 price again this year...their main weapon, I guess, will be Gran Turismo 5 (finally!!!) and heavy bundling...I heard the GT franchise is huge in Europe (the main area in 'Others'), so maybe GT5 alone will be able to counter a 360 slim/price cut in the region.
As for the U.S....the 360 only increases its lead over the PS3 here, and with a slim/price cut, I expect that to continue. |
Maybe for a month or so but then again you have the Halo Reach effect too which will give a spike in sales also. I don't think you're completely mad betting either way to be fair, I guess time will tell.
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I think price is the main demand influencer at this point for 360 in Others. GT5 is sure to have a larger spike than Reach as GT5 will be first full release of the franchise on PS3 vs Reach coming after Halo 3 and ODST, so unless there is a major upset the PS3 (assuming GT5 actually releases this year) should easily generate enough additional sales to outweigh any spikes the 360 might get from Reach.
Looking at time on market vs sales it's pretty clear the basic demand for PS3 is higher at a comparable price point so the 360 in effect has to be cheaper and cheaper by a certain margin to generate enough additional demand to outsell PS3, so a price cut is the sure way to push the 360 back above PS3 again.
Natal as you say is a bit of a wild card - if it takes of like the motion controls of the Wii then who knows what additional demand it might drive, or alternatively it could have next to zero impact : so it's just too hard to figure what impact that might have.
If I was MS, I'd concede the minimal lead to PS3 until Natal arrives and even then, assuming the gap isn't too large, I think they'd do better to sell at current margins vs eat a price cut for what is only likely (assuming minimal Natal impact) a small recovery when all is said and done.
Right now MS has seen 360 do really well in US and more than well enough in Others to ensure very good lifetime sales and a strong position for next gen - I think consolidation vs going crazy with price to gain minimal leads would serve them better now.
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GT5 might push more than Halo Reach but when you combine the potential of a price cut, slim form factor and Halo Reach, I'm not convinced it would be enough to push the PS3 ahead. It would certainly be a surprise to me despite GT's reputation if it did that well. I agree that there is no way Microsoft will go price cut crazy until they need to so consilidation is the only option for the moment.
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I'm not convinced a slim model will make any difference. I don't see Xbox associated with slim in a way that would make it more desirable. I could be wrong but I'm not convinced that having a slim model will automatically generate more demand. I really think it's all about price now for 360 after so many years in the market and with multiple iterations of its main franchises already released.
PS3 is almost in the same position, really. Only GT5 remains to push demand in addition to further price cuts. Looking at GT5:P I expect it to do very well, even though I'm not a big driving sim fan myself.
Natal and Move of course are the wild cards - I'm getting more and more interested to see if they are damp squibs or whetehr they actually take off.
