Piracy DOES lead to some lost sales. But nowhere near a 1:1 ratio. If piracy didn't exist, I would DEFINITELY NOT buy (or even rent!) every single thing I pirated. Absolutely not. When you have actual money riding on something, you're going to be more picky about what you check out. I don't even think I've tried half the things I pirated honestly. Heck, I have a significant backlog of legitimately purchased games as it is.
These are my bare minimum standards for each "buy, rent, pirate or don't bother" decision I make
Piracy: It has to at least be marginally interesting. I have to feel that the game may be worth my time and trouble. Especially if it were to cost a lot of bandwidth.
Rental or Dirt Cheap Purchase: Looks like it might be fun. It's dirt cheap anyway (or in case of rental, "there's no commitment so why not? Send that shit back if it sucks"). Let's give it a shot.
$20/$30 Purchase: Has to be a good chance that I may like the game.
$35-60+ Purchase: I have to be really hyped for it.
Bottom line: Money is a limited resouce. And time is an even more limited resource (that's why gamers have backlogs! And if we're talking about pirated backlogs, those are absolutely massive) So the idea that 1 pirated copy = 1 lost sale is absurd. But yeah there is indeed some negative impact on sales. But the impact is much, much more minor than the industry claims.
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