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The kicker here is the "new" motion controls on the 360/PS3.

Only way in hell the PS3 will get into the mix is if Move is successful and it leads to porting over of some Wii games (very possible)

If Natal is successful, they will win easily. If it is not, Nintendo will win easily by end of gen.

(I equate end of gen to when each company launched their new console. PS2's "last gen" ended the day the PS3 launched in each of the three big regions. What it has done since then has been part of the "current gen")