Microsoft and Sony will do the expected, which is to utilize sustaining innovation on motion controls. They'll make them better and bigger, just like they've been doing with most of their technology so far.
When you look at that, you may think Nintendo has no chance, and it may very well be that they have very little chance even in terms of sales. Because they've already gone through a lot of their potential, wereas Microsoft and Sony have a lot of unreached customers. This year will probably continue the trend of Sony and Microsoft getting a little more momentum.
The way Nintendo won last time was by changing the game completely. Even though Sony and Microsoft are doing motion controls now, they're still playing the same game they've always played. They're making things better, more technological, more robust, there's nothing really new here.
I don't think it's gonna happen this year quite yet, but when Nintendo is ready they'll change the paradigm away from motion controls and leave Microsoft and Sony behind, possibly with devices that serve purposes the public isn't even looking for anymore. But this year it's gonna be Sony and Microsoft being overhyped again, and Nintendo will do ok with their core franchises taking a spotlight. It's gonna be a slightly different, and more positive version of last year's E3 for Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft. Next year though, I think Nintendo might change things a little.
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