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I think it's going to be Mario Kart, although not necessarily by a lot.

This is based on my belief that Gran Turismo and Grand Theft Auto were some of the most casual games of last gen. Unlike other games where you play as a space hamster with a gun, or an angry Spartan general on a quest to thin out the local pantheon etc, which most "normal" people would find awfully geeky, you're just driving a car, or being a regular (criminal) guy. I don't have much interest in either, but I think we can look at the sales data, and say a lot of people find it very easy to relate to the idea of the game, and not feel like a gigantic nerd while doing so.

Now call me some kind of a retarded fish-monkey if you will, but I don't think the kinds of people who bought most copies of the previous GT games have a current gen console yet, and the high price of the HD ones will very possibly be a problem for many of them.

I explained that point pretty badly, but even if I was wrong, I don't think it's entirely far fetched to assume Nintendo's best selling franchise is going to outsell Sony's best selling franchise, the difference in install base being what it is.