| jjseth said: That's what I expect. Plus, GT5 won't be out until late 2008 (most likely early/mid 2009) and the user base will be much larger for the PS3 at that time then current levels. I predict that GT5 will sell 5 times the number of GT5 Prologue. Many PS3 owners love their racing games and early in a consoles life the hardcore gamers who love the driving sims will give it a great attach rate in comparison to how GT4 did on the PS2 when there were many casual gamers who got frustrated on games like that. |
The problem with GT5 is that it is launching so late in comparison to where the previous best selling titles landed with their respective consoles' debuts, so it will have a lot of competition. For example, one of the reasons GT3 A-Spec did so well was that it was available within 6 months to 1 year after the launch of the PS2 in virtually every territory, and there were few (arguably even any) other racers on the platform of comparable quality during that window. Heck, there wasn't a comparable racing experience on any other platform either. Simply, if you wanted a great racing sim, you bought the PS2 and you bought GT3. Look at GT4 in comparison, which didn't even do 60% of GT3's numbers once the PS2 market was saturated. I mean, GT3 launched to an install base of 7-8M, GT4 launched to 10x that number, between 70-80M, with the console at half its original price, too, and barely made it past 58% of its predecessors sales total.
This time around, if there is one genre that is well represented on the PS3, its the driving games. There must be 6 or 8 downloadable demos in the store now (Motorstorm, DiRT, MX vs ATV, NASCAR 08, Carbon, Pro Street, Burnout Paradise, etc ... etc ...). I'm not saying any of these title are a true substitute for what GT5 will deliver, but I think the glut of driving games, and the defection of former PS and PS2 owners to the XBox 360, will ultimately cannibalize GT5's sales -- costing GT5 millions of units over its life.
Mario Kart Wii, on the other hand, is in the opposite position in that (while there is no shortage of racers on the Wii, either) it will enjoy having the market virtually to itself in the category of Nintendo Wi-Fi enabled racers.
With online, Kart will be a monster.
