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GT5 will have much higher initial sales and possibly initial attach rate, but there's little doubt Mario Kart will crush it lifetime.

GT4 only outsold MK:DD by about 2m dispite having a userbase 10x the size. How could GT5 compete when the Wii will have a much larger user base?

Also a lot more racers compete directly against GT (especially on PS3) than there are that compete with MK. MK also appeals to a larger user base, something Wii specializes in.

I doubt MK will have the 30% attach rate MK:DD did on GC, but even with a 10% attach rate it'll still beat GT5 handily because of respective installed bases.