If we cut through the fanboyism you have to ask a simple question. When is the PS3 going to peak? Is this it's peak year? Is it going to be next year?
Speaking from an analysis point of view i think right now is the best the PS3 has ever been in terms of what it can offer for the amount it costs. The first three months of 2010 see the PS3 at the height of it's power in terms of games released and in terms of it's demand.
However that demand is not as high as Vgc tries to imply it is. With this months NPD results see's the PS3 overtracked for the 10th month out of the last 12th. You don't need to be an analysis to spot a pattern there.
If we use this months figures the numbers were a lot lower then predicted. That was in the best month on record for games on the system.
If we use NPD numbers in position of Vgc's USA figures we see the weekly worldwide gap is just 30k. If you break that gap down into regions your find that americas obviously has 360 selling more. Europe has them selling neck and neck due to the popularity of the 360 in UK, currently the 2nd biggest gaming market in the world.
The majority of this gap comes from Japan mainly because as we know 360 won't sell there.
Another main gap is in others in the "other" section which makes up around 10k of the gap each week. I have asked about this region many times trying to get clarification on how those numbers are tracked when in some areas i.e China it would be impossible due to their laws, have yet to get a reply in months of asking.
So you have to look at it in a regional sense to maybe find an answer.
America will see 360 sell more.
Europe will most likely be neck and neck
Japan will see PS3 sell more.
Sony had a really good go at it in terms of getting the numbers back against the 360. They released a new model with a big price cut and since then have released a better catalogue of games for the system in my opinion. While in this time the 360 has not really done much, stayed at the same price it has been at now for almost 2 years. Has had not many exclusives in that period, only a couple that are truely note worthy, no A+ exclusive games.
But even with all this it is still selling more in americas and in places in europe.
As i said before if you look at it from a neutral perspective you have to say maybe PS3 should be doing better then it has been in the period Microsoft did nothing. Because it is no secret at all that this year will most likely see Microsoft do a slim version 360 with a price cut and release Natal, cheap.
Now you only have to look at Nintendo to see the popularity of the casual games market. If Microsoft tap into that market and take away even just 10% of Wii customers that will result in a big sales difference for Microsoft.
Make no mistake about it Natal is going to be a big thing. Even if we as hardcore gamers never use it, don't like it etc.. the potential it has for many different things is massive. This spreads to a widescope of people in all sorts of daily lives. For example on the Wii Fit when you do the Kung-Fu game, we all know that is not Kung-Fu, the Wii cannot teach us that because the board we stand on can only tell our weight movements. Where as Natal has the potential to actually teach you Kung-Fu by scanning your whole body and analysing your whole body movememnts. If you feck up it can see that.
The potential for it is massive but it is the software that will sell it, and Microsoft are one of if not thee biggest software companies in the world. They will not release it without having something fancy to go with it ala Wii Sports equivelent.
Then through the remainder of the year again look at it from a neutral point of view PS3 future games line-up is now weak. If we roll back just 18 months Sony could boast Final Fantasy and Metal Gear Solid games as fully exclusive. That has now ended. Meaning they have to rely on titles they make themself. And they make great games. But they are not well known and thus because of that won't be the huge system sellers that we were used to.
Where as Microsoft have dediced to concentrate on the next to quarters for their exclusive games. They have a mixed bag of games coming out ranging from Alan Wake, to Fable to their behomoth Halo. So something for everyone. I think it is pretty safe to say that in terms of software sales for the back half of the year 360 will sell more then PS3.
The question then becomes will this software lead to system sales? Personally i think it will but not by much. What will drive sales is the obvious incoming price cut.
And that has been the pattern of this gen. One cuts price and sells loads of consoles, then the other cuts price and sells more console etc etc.
I have no doubt at all by the last day of 2010 the 360 will have clawed back every unit the PS3 has gained on it this year. Which as of right now is just over 700k (a lot less if you use NPD's numbers). And then the following year it will have a similar lead on the PS3 and then Sony will price cut. And that will be the pattern until the end of this gen. So my answer is no.
I just think the next 8 months are going to be a testing time for Sony. Sales week by week are already falling especially in Japan. With no massive titles coming out it is hard to see those sales remaining as they are. The one game that can compete with games like Halo is GT5, but i can't see it coming this year.
