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Well, Microsoft is going to need a big time new ip from somewhere that will set the world on fire or a big new exclusive other than what we know about now to stay ahead.

They will get spikes when Halo: Reach and Gears of War III and maybe when Natal comes out.

The fact that Gears III, according to the trailer the last one in the series, is coming out in April 2011 and it was the first big game on the 360 makes me think the next xbox could be coming out in November 2011.