Given what we know, i think your estimates are correct, but i would still pin the new console down at holiday 2011, especially given the known projected release for 3DS.
This holiday is a little crowded, i'll grant, but it's possible they could wedge a Retro Studios project in there. They seem to be crowding this Q2, so they must be confident in their later strategy, otherwise they'd probably hold off Other M a little longer.

Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.







