Screen Digest still believes the PS3 will take the worldwide lead

[omgwtfbbq]

RolStoppable said:

Nighteyes_1981 said:
Here's the thing that cracks me up about all these forcasts and console comparisons. For the past 20 years that I've been a gamer, these are the things that I've noticed:
1) The winner of each console generation so far has typically been the least powerful of the available systems.
2) The winner of each console generation has traditionally been the least expensive system.
3) Exlusivity has played a major part in each console victory, though exlusivity is happens less and less these days. Soon, for the most part, the only exlusive titles will be first and second party.

1) Out of the relevant consoles in each generation there is one exception: the SNES.
2) I am not sure how all the systems were priced, but there's also one exception for sure: the GC.
3) Indeed, exclusive games were important. I don't agree with the second part of your statement though. Due to the differences in specs and more important the controller, the Wii will get a lot of exclusive games.

I think power of the winning system (usually the weakest) and price are merely a coincidence throughout the generations. There are two better benchmarks why a system wins/won:

1) Size of game library: How many games are available?
2) Variety in game library: How many different kinds of games are available in good numbers?

If you apply these two factors to the winning systems, whether they have been consoles or portables, you will see they perfectly fit.

tsk tsk Rol, don't you remember our little latin lesson? "Cum hoc ergo propter hoc"? ;)

In reality, the situation is a lot more complex than to break it down to these factors. While it's true a large and varied game library does attract buyers, much more influential is the opposite, that a large user base attracts games. We are all aware of the "third party development spiral of doom/win" theory, and it's the one most people use to rebut the "PS3 will win because of the games" scenario.

So the real question is, how do we make a game console sell a hundred million and dominate the Industry? Well it would seem that is rather simple. The game console that looks like winning early on will almost certainly win. This pattern makes sense, since developers will flock to the winning console in order to make the most money. (Always follow the money)

So now the question becomes "how do we make everyone think we're going to win the console war?". Well if I knew the answer to this I wouldn't be posting it on a video games forum. But looking at past statistics, there are a few things that help:

1) Brand name. This is especially big in the SNES/Genesis war, where Nintendo very slowly overtook Sega to be number 1
2) Price. People are more likely to pick up a cheaper system
3) Killer app. The important thing about a killer app is it has to come EARLY. Not necessarily early in your console's lifetime, but before you are being consistently outsold by your competition. Otherwise the killer app just appears as a "blip"
4) A head start. If two consoles are selling at roughly the same rate, but one has, for example, 7 million more users, then one year down the track when your next game is going to be released, you can expect the gap to be about the same. Which platform would you prefer develop for?
5) I'm sure there are more that I can't think of right now

Things that don't seem to help:

1) Processing power
2) Extra features

Now of course, these things don't hinder (except indirectly by raising the price), but I haven't found any evidence to suggest that they help. 

Whatever the magic formula is, the important part to remember is that once a console gets momentum, this momentum doesn't stop, in fact, it usually spirals out of control. You'll notice that loser consoles tend to have their first two years decent and then tail off quickly, whereas the winner consoles have first and second years better than the losers, and then the third and fourth years are better still. So while it's a marathon, it's a special kind of marathon where people give drinks to whoever's winning and throw stones at whoever's losing.