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Zucas on 10 April 2010
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Nintendogamer said:
Zucas said:
Yes this is the first Nintendo home console to hit the mark, and only the 3rd home console in history to do it: obviously behind the Playstation 1 and Playstation 2. GBA hit the 81 million mark as was pointed out and by the end of the year Wii will easily have beaten that, bar any catastrophes on a global scale.

As for the future of Wii sales, 85 million by the end of the year would be spectacular and put it in line to at least get to the 100 million mark while possibly passing up the PS1 as the second best selling home console of all-time. Would be quite an achievement, especially in the time it will have done it in. Just going to depend on how long the Wii stays on the market compared to when N6 arrives with predictions putting it as early as 2012 with announcement in 2011. But Wii is still trucking along and with the great lineup it has in 2010, shouldn't falter too much.

If Wii can hit at least 118M i nthe future it will be in the top 3 best selling systems ever, topping the original GBA.  then the top 3 will look like this:

 

1.  Nintendo DS ( approx 169M )

2.  Playsation 2 (approx 145M)

3.  Nintendo Wii ( approx 118M)

Yea I'd say 118 million is plausible.  Funny coming from me who said 3 years ago that the Wii would end at about 80 million haha.  Wii has sold 4.2 million this year.  Selling at a slightly lower pace than the year before it (about 4.36 million).  Considering how strong the Wii was this time last year that is quite impressive even with shortages (although shortages then too).  I'd say Wii has a chance to match last year's sales given it is doubtful it'll have "down" time like last year with the lineup it has.  Galaxy 2, Other M, Epic Mickey, Last Story, Xenoblade, DQX, Vitality Sensor, and of course Zelda Wii.  But just for the sake of easy computing, we'll say it'll sell 20 million in 2010, which is slightly less than last year's.  That would put the Wii at 85.8 million at the start of 2011.

If this is when it starts to fall from the top we'd see Wii sell about 17 million in 2011, 13 million in 2012, 7 million in 2013, and then for the rest of its cycle another 5-8 million.  This means Wii would be upwards of 120-130 million by the time it fades out which would definitely put it in that top 3.  And I'd say that's when we'll start seeing it as N6 should be announced in either 2011 or 2012 year and release the year after. 

Obviously there are variables that could strongly effect them but I don't think too much in the negative.  I do think if instead of a pricecut this year, we see a bundle of Wii with Wii Sports and Wii Sports Resort + Motionplus, then that could strongly increase sales of the system.  It's rather likely too as Zelda Wii is more than likely goign to be motion plus only and having the userbase as large as possible would be a good thing.  Then of course if this happened, we might see a competitive pricedrop in 2011/2012 to $150 and $100 to make it the "cost friendly" console of choice as the next wave of consoles start to be detailed and come out.  This is something Nintendo will be able to do more effectively due to the profits they make off their software, which the competition doesn't have the luxury of.  Given all that, Wii sales could increase by a good 10-20 million if timed well.  Of course competition could hurt them in certain ways, but as we've seen for the first 3 years of the cycle, nothing to an extent that hurt their market share. 

I still don't think Wii is going to be able to be on the market long enough to have enough sales to overtake the PS2.  But I do think it'll end up over the PS1 and higher than the original Gameboy which would be quite a win for the product as far as Nintendo is concerned.  But I do think we'll find out more about the Wii's future when this E3 comes up.  Obviously Nintendo will spend a lot of time on the rest of the year lineup, but I'm rather curious to hear what they announced for "long-term" projects or namely 2011 projects.  I think as soon as Nintendo starts getting deep into N6, Wii will start to fade which will be opposite of what will happen with DS.  Even with the announcement of 3DS, you can expect DS to be sold for a long time to come.  Might make that 169 million number a little low even with the 3DS coming out.  Might even hurt early adoption rates of the 3DS but I think Nintendo will find a way to make dual-ownership work.