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In the end if it will not offer favorite X360 games to be fully playable with Natal than i don't see Natal successful.
X360 user base is mainly Halo/Gears fans.If games Like Halo:R ,GOW3,Fable 3 won't be fully playable from beginning to end only by Natal than most X360 owner won't buy it.Also IMO Natal as a platform will have mid-success for a year but after that sales of games dedicated for Natal will go down.Also I can't see happening High budget game for Natal.Expect Wii Sports/Play type of games for Natal.
I will be betting 4-5mln LTD for Natal.