Should Nintendo launch in 2011-12 starting the next gen with monster power?

[Mazty]

Kenryoku_Maxis said:

Mazty said:

hsrob said:

Mazty said:
They'll probably go for an improved wii. Either way Nintendo have shot themselves in the foot. They may be ahead at the moment, but the market buying the wii will not bother to buy an improved wii as surveys indicate that many wiis are now dust collectors, with serious gamers playing on either the xbox or ps3, resulting in all the hardcore franchises on either the ps3, pc or 360, and not with nintendo.
It's hard to see what Nintendo could do as many people who own HD tvs either already own a wii or are not bothered by one, as hd is for impressive visuals, something the wii is incapable of, and without bluray, is still incapable of delivering in terms of media playback.

Surveys mean squat, this is a sales site.  Using the following chart we can see the attach rates for the current systems.  If we assume half of all Wiis sold are currently occupying a place in the consumers closet it means that attach rate for active users is 13.36, possibly the highest for all current gen systems. 

	3,356,679 (+18%)	225,389,182	6.77
	2,476,298 (+61%)	537,100,756	4.19
	2,227,230 (-2%)	462,739,894	6.68
	1,756,176 (-19%)	337,203,923	8.67
	579,199 (-3%)	149,120,697	2.61
	278,249 (-5%)	n/a	n/a

Even if the abovementioned and undoubtedly reputable surveys yielded a closet occupation and dust collecting rate for the Wii as low 20% of all systems sold, the attach rate for active users would still be approaching that of the 360 and significantly higher than the PS3. 

In case you don't get my point, somebody is buying the games, whether they play them or not is for the most part irrelevant.

 

Does the attach rate include accessories? If so then the wii figures are going to be hideously messed due to the numb-chuck, steering wheel etc.
Plus is there any specific games that are being sold? If it's just shovelware, then my point stands that the owners of the wii are not serious gamers and therefore the wii market is not sustainable in the long run.

First of all, you could make the same argument against the PS3.

Second of all, just trying to claim the Wii has 'shovelware' while the PS3 doesn't when the presented data shows they have near the same attach rate makes for a weak argument no matter how you look at it.

Third, because the successor to the Wii could come out years before the next major console and with 3-4x the install base of its predecessors, that's where its true advantage lies.

Last of all, I could claim there's just as many people who own a Wii who are 'serious gamers' as there are who own PS3 and 'don't play it often'.  But there's no data to back it up so let's not use those types of generalizations.

Well you could make the argument against the PS3, apart from the fact the term shovelware came from the junk games produced on mass for the wii...
Yes it is a hypothetical argument, but one rooted in, as i said, surveys which suggest many wii owners do not tend to play on their consoles for an amount of time that a serious gamer would.
Problem is the install base, as I've been saying, may not be interested in another console, because they are content with what the wii offers. Clearly they did not want good graphics (360 and PS3 provide better) or media playback, or even a remote that worked 'well' (180ms lag), so why would they buy a better console if they are happy with dated graphics and a laggy pad?

Yes again this is hypothetical, but not something that should just be dismissed as the above point shows that wii owners have not got a want for high quality, therefore why buy a better Wii?