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This should be a close one barring any major adjustments.

As of 3/20

MW2: 10.12M

Halo 3: 10.88m

The last few weeks MW2 has been selling about 85-90k a week while Halo 3 about 11-12k.  If both games keep up that pace, they should both hit 11M in about 10-11 weeks.