I expect SMG2 to sell somewhere short of 8 million. Yoshi alone is not enough to put it over the top. I believe many Wii owners are not as inclined to buy every iteration of a franchise as many of the the PS3/360 owners are.
I can only speak for myself in this, but seeing as I have SMG already, I am looking forward to the two other big releases within a month of Galaxy 2 (S&P2 and Other M), which both provide totally new experiences, (although I am really hesitant about Other M, and if Starfox is announced for Q4 at E3, I might hold off on S&P).
GT5 and Halo will both sell a ton, and both will likely surpass the total sales of SMG2. That being said, I don't believe either will be the highest selling exclusive title of 2010.
NSMBWii, Wii fit+, WSR, Natal pack-in all have a pretty decent shot at beating them. As an outside chance, I'll add, Move Pack-in and Zelda Wii. As a dark horse, Vitality sensor.
Doubt CoD will do it, simply because of how most 'hardcore' gamers piss all over Treyarch's efforts, and many of these 'hardcore' gamers were the ones lining up and hyping MW2 to the extent that it was.
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