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Halo Reach will destroy everything. If a sort of addon sold nearly 5m in just 4 months then a proper full title being billed as the last Halo game will sell huge numbers.

GT5 is debatable if it will be out this year. If it is then i still think Halo simply because GT series is most popular in europe and UK in specific. People forget the majority of sales come from here. GT4 sold 10m units in its lifetime. 6.4m of those come from others, mostly europe. More then Japan and US numbers combined. We love our racing games, it is just the way we are, we are all petrol heads at heart here.
But things are very different here in the UK now. Playstation is no longer the number 1 console. There are a lot of other games out there now, there is more competition.
Point being GT5 will not sell anywhere near the numbers for GT4 because that would mean 10m buying it, which is about 33% of the user base of the PS3. That is not going to happen.
If we look at the Pro-logue numbers we see the same pattern as before. 2m of its 3m sales come from others, mostly europe.
GT5 will sell loads here. The question is how much will it sell elsewhere? Japan numbers based on previous versions have been the lowest area. The last one only selling 500k there in its lifetime. Americas not selling that much more.
So realisticly you have to say Halo Reach will sell loads in americas, a lot in others and next to none in Japan. GT5 will sell a bit in Japan, a fair bit in americas and shead loads in europe.
So really it is sort of like putting Halo numbers in americas vs GT5 numbers in europe. Have to say Halo would probably win that.