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It will almost certainly pass, and if so, it will definitely end up in front of the Supreme Court. If the Court plays it straight, the states have a very good chance of winning. Using the Commerce Clause to justify a tax on economic inactivity is simply bizarre.

I'm interested to see how this affects Obama's push for amnesty. If you add many millions more to the population, this health care bill goes from being "a big deficit reducer" (LOL...) to a massive budget buster, even by the insane math Congress is using in trying to sell this thing. Even the CBO admits that if you take out the student loan takeover (which has nothing to do with the bill) and add in the doctor fix (which has everything to do with this bill), it's already in the red.