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eugene on 09 December 2007
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HappySqurriel said:
eugene said:
HappySqurriel said:
eugene said:
In order for the Wii to achieve greater than 50% market share this generation,there gonna need to sell well over 20 million units a year from now on. Thats no easy feat. The thing is the 360 and PS3 will also sell better with each progressive year as their prices go down and their game libraries grow. Thats not to say the Wii wont sell 100 million + units at the end.

Won't the Wii sell better with each progressive year as its price goes down and its game library grows?

$200 (or less) is the price people are typically willing to pay for a game console and the XBox 360 and PS3 are years away form selling at this price, and the high cost of game development and lower hardware sales will mean that the PS3 and XBox 360's libraries will be growing far slower than the Wii's library from now on.


Sure the Wii's gonna sell betterwith each progressive year. But the total number of units to beat 50% also gets higher. this year its 18 million next year it will be well over 20 million then 25 million. Im talking a year. eventually, even if the Wii sells 30 million a year, they probably still wont beat 50%


Except (of course) that the industry does not grow by 50% each year ...

1 (mabye 2) million additional new consoles are sold every year based on typical growth in the industry, the other new console sales come from tapping into new markets. While Microsoft and Sony are fighting to get that 1 (mabye 2) million additional console sales from the organic growth of the core-gamer market Nintendo will try to convince the Millions of 'casual' Nintendo DS owners to buy a Wii ...

Brain Training, Nintendogs, and Animal Crossing allowed Nintendo to rapidly grow their marketshare in the handheld market because your girlfriend, mother and grand-mother now play videogamers; what happens if Wii Fit has the same effect?


 Thats why I assume Xbox and PS3 in the same catagory in the first place. Its the same demographic.For now at least. They will both eventually gun for the casuals as well. Xbox is already somewhat successful at getting it when you see their numbers for games like Guitar Hero 3 and Scene it already breaking 100k. As successful as Nintendo? NOOOOO WAAAAy. But it will get better. As for the growth, I was using inflated numbers just for the sake of argument. Nintendo cannot out pace the xbox+ ps3's growth so significantly that they can break the 50% barrior. The bar is just set way too high. Its more a sign of the growth of the industry than anything else. Keep in mind that the market share difference of the PS2. Xbox+ gamecube+ Xbox 360+Wii+ PS3 < PS2.  All combined doesnt add up to PS2. The Wii is far from that market share advantage. And yes, I am aware that the crrent gen system are far from being done from selling