It actually only comes down to natal. MSFT already has a $199 console on the market and has for a while, Sony still has a price cut bump still to go. I say only natal because right now, the PS3 is comfortably outselling the 360 WW by 50k in the slow season so the move, which may or may not provide a sizable bump isnt a must for sony to eventually catch the 360. However, if Natal explodes MSFT comfortably stays ahead of Sony.
Natal needs to negate the inevitable (albeit most likely small) Move bump, the 50k per week right now, Arguable the biggest release this gen (GT5) and another price reduction below the coveted $200 for the PS3. These factors considered id say its a toss up right now, but i say an educated guess right now puts me in the camp that says eventually PS3 overtakes the 360.
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