| twesterm said: I could believe at most a $50 price drop but I really don't think it will happen. Sony has already made a lot of sacrifices for their PS3 and it's going to be a good long while before we see a price drop. |
I hate to quote you again, because I don't want this to come across as me arguing with you directly -- I understand your points. That said, Sony expected to take a loss on the hardware, and I think Sony anticipates losing money on the hardware for a number of years to come. They established this precedent from the launch of the original PlayStation. They are going to cut prices naturally as a matter of course everytime sales stall, or to match MS cutting the 360. Where the PS3 breaks trend, however, is that I don't think they're recouping their losses on the software as readily as they did in the prior generations, which was the business model Sony had always banked on.
They're investing tens of millions of dollars in each title, and devs from other companies have publicly lamented that they think they'd have to shift 600,000 units to break even. According to VGChartz own data, Sony has published or invested in maybe 16 or 17 titles that have dropped in all major territories, and thus far only two have broke not only 1M, but even that 600k mark (Resistance and Motorstorm). Heavenly Sword will hit 600k by year end, and Ratchet & Clank and Uncharted should reach that number early next year. Hot Shots Golf should do well when it comes to the States, but I think the software rate has to be considered somewhat disappointing overall, with maybe a 25 - 30% "success" rate. Warhawk, Folklore, and Eye of Judgement have to be the most disappointing, right now, in reference to their quality/value vs number of units sold, not counting the disaster with what happened to Lair.
I don't think losing money on software too was in Sony's original plan, and the only way that can be rectified is to move more hardware. It's not all gloom and doom -- the PS3 will wind up just peachy long term -- but losing money from two divisions can't be tolerable for another year.
