Exclusives often get a different kind of backing. They get more advertising, more resources for developement and more media coverage. They get mentioned in press releases. They often have high-profile studios behind them.
The same game with the same hype would sell more as cross-platform. But of course, life isn't that easy.
Then there's also the issue of multiple console ownership. In America at least, multiple console ownership is up tremendously over last generation. This would help to negate the edge of the extra install base.
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