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I think the DS sucessor could be launched this year, at least in Japan.

In Japan the DS isn't as strong as before, if you look the charts at the time of the launch of DSi and DSi LL the sales were weakling.

With the launch of a new generation Pokemon game, it could be a launch title.
And a way of don't hurt the DS_LITE/DSi sales is making the sucessor not retrocompatible.