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Logic makes sense and I agree. For non-gamers/casuals Natal will likely be the easiest and best option for them. There are millions of people who are casuals/non-gamers and even suck at using a Wii-mote because they just can't handle a controller.

PS Move is more likely to satisfy core/hardcore gamers need for motion, but not casuals. Casuals don't really care about graphics all that much so I don't think PS Move is going to get people to spend more on them over the Wii option. Natal needs to be bundled and priced within $50 of the Wii system in order for casuals to consider it as well, imo. Luckily MS has been saving a price cut and should have GPU/CPU and maybe even full hardware revisions coming considering the mounting rumors of a 360 Slim/Redesign.