Most of you wonder about my numbers.. Well here is how I see it - the market will expand. Population is going up. these are the most positive (high ends of the estimated sales) ideas about industry growth. Working against those optimistic numbers are, price, low HD-TV adoption rates, and a particular theory I have that I hope will not come true. In this theory, the majority of games become ill-suited for normal gamers - who dislike time-consuming,online-centric, difficult to learn games on 360 and PS3, but also dislike motion-sensing (somewhat) over-simplified games on Wii. This forces the traditional console market to shrink, even as Nintendo pulls in new customers to the market. I don't think it will happen, but if it did, the market would be around 180 million. If both approaches worked, and PS3 and 360 price drops were announced tommorow, the three consoles could reach 250 million. Now, as for the ranges - Sony has the strongest brand loyalty in Europe. I just can't see Microsoft or Nintendo passing 27 or 28 million in Europe. Sony is in the 40 something millions with PS2. They will lose alot of market as a percentage in Europe, but very few actual users (the situation is similar to Nintendo in the USA during the SNES-N64 transition when the market expanded but the userbase dropped a little, and the marketshare dropped from like 55% to 35%). Microsoft will start to make inroads in Japan this generation, but they are not even at Sega levels of niche yet in Japan. If Microsoft ever gets to 3 million in Japan, they will become a threat to dominate that market eventually, but it won't happen for at least another 4-5 years. Microsoft has the potential to be stronger than Nintendo in Europe if they can develop more casual content and a better business model, but they have not shown that yet (Live seems to do well only in English speaking countires). America I think will approve of all three consoles. In terms of sales, Microsoft won 2005-2006. Nintendo will likely win 2007-2008. Sony will be third in this market since I get the impression that many Americans simply prefer what Nintendo and Microsoft offer, since Sony has always relied on 3rd party content, and Nintendo will likely have the most 3rd party support this generation, while Microsoft will have Live, cheaper entrance, and many games that were formerly Playstation only. I can also see many Wii owners buying 360 and vice versa, since 360 and Wii both seem to be better suited at tapping into gaming as a social function (imagine playing professional athletes in Wii MLB 2k9 online or something, with actual accurate pitching and hitting mechanics). All three consoles will easily hit 10 million in the USA by their third x-mas of availability in the USA. Japan seems infatuated with games that are 'deep' but easy to play, which favors Wii most. Sony is going to lose at least 1/3 of their market because of a number of factors (mainly price), but I don't see them losing 70%, which would knock them down to 40-45 million sold. Sega went from 30 million to 10 million from Gen-Sat.. a 70% loss...and Sony is not as incompetant as Sega no matter how silly Sony may look right now, but they are not as savvy as Nintendo either who lost around 1/3 in sales for 2 generations (from SNES-N64-GC). I personally expect Sony to lose around 40-45% of their PS2 market at worst, which puts them in NES range. When price goes down, I can seem them at 70 million. More than that, alot needs to go right starting now. You have to keep in mind that no manufacturer has ever lost 50 million customers from one generation to the next, so this is still a huge blow to Sony. Basically, no matter what I can't see any of the consoles doing beyond these absolutes: PS3 - 50-100 million (70 million most likely - over 40% loss in PS2 market) Wii - 40-120 million (likely 80 million+, NES numbers + better sales in Europe combined pop growth and expanded market growth as a minimum) 360 - 30-70 million (6 million for 5 years at least, I think it will make significant headway in all three markets, although on a unit level, the gain will be biggest in the USA). No way all three maximums or minimums will be met though.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
