| Mummelmann said: I got a NES for christmas in 1989 I think, but it debuted in 84 or 85, right? 70 million seems like such a smal number, every single friend had one! Another factor would be economy, late eighties saw an increase in consumers' ability to purchase, which was bound to benefit the PS when it came out a few years later. My point about casual buyers/consumers is that most of their possessions matter little to them since it's not a wholehearted interest on their account, so they tire easily. This is why cellphone makers, clothes designers and other manufacturers have to update or relieve their products with new models/versions all the time. And casuals tire most of all of things that do only one thing, especially in electronics. When the first MP3 playback stereo sets became affordable, sales practically exploded, the same is true with TV's sporting features such as i-in-i. Casuals love products that handle multiple tasks, so for most of them a 360 or a PS3 would probably also be cool for a while (perhaps several months...), but the prices are too steep and the hardware itself has a "geek" status in the market somehow, so the only affordable console left would be the Wii. I see lifetime sales of approx 90-95 million for the Wii, which is nowhere near a fad as many claim, but my experience is that the casual market saturates and tires very quickly, and I fear this can be Nintendo's undoing (not really undoing, they'll still do great, but not by the standards and expectation of many posters here). It's more than likely that the Wii will "win" this gen, but not so much that it'll sell 250-500 million. I also believe that Sony will take "2nd place" this gen, which is fine by any standards given the high price and steep competition. The 360? I have little faith in that product tbh, as did I in the X-box. |
So wait you're saying people will buy it and then tire of it, so what, they already bought it, hence why would it stop selling, people will still buy it, you can't tire of something you don't own, and trust me as long as people keep playing and enjoying the Wii it'll keep selling Also look at the NES hardware shipments, almost match the Ps1's sales in NA and Japan, but since NES wasn't pushed much in PAL that is where the difference in sales is located, PS1 never brought in the casuals, it just went further into the global market, and PS2 just expanded on population growth and the failure of its competitors
Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)







