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I think Sony would have seen an identical explosion from keeping the same form factor and chopping of $100 from the price.  Some ultrahardcore might have purchased it because of the new size, but I think the bulk of the sales came from new buyers who finally saw the system as affordable.

I don't see the point of a 360 Slim unless it allows them to make it for less money.  That won't boost sales though.  I also don't see a price drop.  They aren't doing worse than they were last year, they're pretty stable.  I think they will do bundles at the same price until Sony starts hinting at a price drop.