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astrosmash said:

 

 

Blue shells don't come up often,

 

 

That's somewhat debatable. If the 6th, 7th and 8th place all gets items, there's a ~ 13% chance of one of them getting a blue shell. As some will miss, say 10% for each time you pass an item box.

That means that there's a ~ 35-41% chance for each round of someone getting a blue shell. In other words, there will be at least one blue shell in 75% of all races.