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This is actually pretty hard to guess. My expectations are as follows:

Halo 3 will sell more than Halo 2
SMG will sell more than SMS
SMG will have comparatively larger legs than Halo 3

With those 3 things said, and with the current numbers taken into consideration, I think SMG will sell slightly more. I think both will end up north of 10 million sold, but I think that Halo 3's performance out of the gate will take time and effort to overcome. A better comparison I think is SSBB, which I think will do a million or so more than Halo 3 lifetime.