I would like to share my view on Halo Reach's sales in comparison to Halo 3.
I believe it cannot outsell Halo 3. The best it can do actually have equal sales as Halo 3. I believe this not because it has a series to compete to called COD. Not because Halo 3 is the peak sales for the Halo series and certainly not because Halo series is in a decline.
Halo Reach is a prequel right? But prequel or not, it's gonna do at least 4.5 mil+ Week 1. There are people who will buy this coz it's a Halo title and most people will buy coz by the time Halo Reach is out, people will know that Reach takes the Halo series to a new level in terms of gameplay and graphics. But the fact that it's a prequel and not a sequel will prevent it outdoing Halo 3. How many prequel games have you seen outsell a sequel game? This brings me to my next point.
I reckon install base has got nothing to do with this. So you claim that the install base has increased since 2007. Well if it's increased, those who love Halo would've at least bought Halo 3 along with their X360 right? Hence overtime Halo 3 has managed to reach 10 mil sales. What I don't understand is how people who aren't interested in Halo would buy Halo Reach? If people didn't buy Halo 3 or ODST, Why should they buy Reach? That's not gonna happen. And then let's assume that people who weren't interested in Halo 3 buy Reach. Since it's a prequel, wouldn't you think people who want to buy Halo 3 and maybe ODST after since it's cheap now? So that's 1 more copy of Halo 3 sold for every Reach copy sold to new people and hence Reach cannot outsell Halo 3.
And that is why the best Reach can do is equal the sales of Halo 3.
Of course we really cannot find out who's right or wrong until at least next year but that is what I believe on this matter.
