RUMOR: Natal going to be really expensive!

[Reasonable]

Alby_da_Wolf said:

Reasonable said:
I don't know what Natal costs to produce, but I do know it needs to be pretty affordable unless MS just wants to target early adopters and build for their next console.

If it's too expensive (and I guess MS cutting the CPU implies it was too expensive in terms of the original build) then it could really struggle to take off.

I guess MS might need to consider selling at cost or even a loss if they want to secure high demand.

They'll have to try to keep their expectations... reasonable.

Adding a new feauture so late, both MS and Sony can hope it will help support sales and boost them a little bit, but they can't pretend to find themselves with two new Wii's in their hands, they arrive last to the party, with a "me too" aura at least partially ruining any coolness, and being too ambitious would only make them burn money, nevertheless starting experiencing now on the market too instead of waiting for the next gen is the right thing to do to fill at least part of the gap separing them from Nintendo and to prevent it from widening (and they'll have also to study each one something new and original, as Ninty will certainly do it for next gen).

 

That's how I see it.

At lauch, I see four groups Natal/Arc can sell to:

 

1 - existing owners as a seperate peripheral.  Both MS and Sony should be able to see some okay sales here if the games & hook is strong enough.  MS has the bigger install base but Sony already has EyeToy customers and possibly (but only possibly) a slightly better existing demographic to appeal to with LBP, etc.  Pretty much even chances I'd say for MS/Sony to do okay.  Of course, this does zero to advance their console install base but does help the new peripherals gain and audience.

2 - existing Wii owners.  Well, I see this as a dead end, and a worrying one for MS/Sony.  If you have a Wii and are fine with it why would you buy a 360/PS3 to get their motion controls?  Natal or Arc would have to have games and a hook that way eclipsed the Wii to even snag a fraction of the Wii only install base IMHO, and I just don't see either achieving that.  The problem is that the Wii already has the largest install base for the types of games that use motion controls.

3 - people who don't have a 360/PS3/Wii but who decide Natal / Arc is the thing for them rather than the Wii.  This seems a tough sell for MS/Sony as well.  As with 2) above they'd need games, marketing and a hook to divert a reasonable (sorry!) percentage of the Wii's current weekly demand away from the Wii to them instead.  This seems a tall order to me currently.

4 - force Natal/Arc on new 360/PS3 owners.  This, next to 1) above, is the most likely option, but potentially the most costly/risky for both MS/Sony.  Put Natal/Arc in the box and force every new 360/PS3 owner to take it.  Both the 360 and PS3 are selling well each week and every one of those could have a controller included.  The issue is do they make it mandatory or a special bundle?  If a special bundle then we'll see the real demand but it allows for people who really only want a 360/PS3 on the same terms as today to bypass Natal / Arc and reduce their acceptance in the market.

If they make it all consoles have the motion controls then they will either need to absorb the cost to keep prices the same or raise the price of the PS3/360 to include the new motion controls (I'm assuming here for example that the 360 would sell exactly as today for controllers, etc plus Natal, and the same for the PS3 which would ship with a Dualshock plus EyeToy plus Wand (Arc, whatever).

 

To get the most marketshare right away I believe both MS/Sony would need to make the new controllers mandatory and try to keep the price point close to where it is now as well as offer the devices at a fairly low cost to existing owners.  Even then, unless the new devices produce an actual boost to underlying demand, the consoles will simply sell the same as they do now except they'll include some additional control devices.

I guess we'll see soon enough, but releasing this late when a competitor arguably already 'owns' the core demographic you're tyring to reach is a very tall order in terms of achieving large sales success.