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First you have to assume that Halo Reach will end up being the quality title that Bungie is accustomed to making. I'll give you two reasons why it could be much larger.

1.) Halo 3 came out when the user base was much smaller. When Reach comes out the user base will likely be about 3 times the size of Sept 07.

2.) If (and this is a big if) Natal re-energizes the 360 with casual gamers it could see massive growth from people who originally were interested in Halo but were not previuosly interested enough to buy an xbox to try it out.