Do you guys think NSMB WII could sell 20 million in it's first year?

[Cheebee]

Zucas said:
Well if it sells on average of 200,000 for the next 38 weeks then it'll sell 7.6 million or just short of the mark. Which basically means it is in no way out of the question. But if it does it, it will barely do it. We aren't going to see it explode past the number. Also we have to remember, the game is slowing down in Japan, although slowly, it'll eventually be on the 20k-40k a week part there.

Also, we have to factor in how Galaxy 2 will affect sales. 2d or 3d, Mario is still the game and there is no telling how the game will affect sales of the title. It's arguable that Mario Kart Wii hurt the sales of Galaxy 1 so who knows here. Also when Wii's become a little more plentiful in America, we could see potential increases, especially in September and October right before that November deadline.

So it's hard to say and obviously lots of factors, but I think I'm going to say it will fall short. It'll probably be in the 17-18 million time frame by the middle of November. And more than likely in those last 6-7 weeks of the year it'll be able to go over 20 million before 2010 ends. Either way, it's a record which no other single game has done before.

Pretty much this.