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ok for the U.S, for the rest of the world (except Japan), it is very difficult to say .... Europe is a very different market compared to usa ... trends change quickly, depending on prices, countries, mentalities ... a simple price drop can switch the situation (I remember the end of 2008 when  360 destroyed the PS3 even in Europe ... with  20 euros pric cut and pubs). but that will very difficult for MS this year... once again, depending of natal....