can the 360 sell 70+ million consoles?

[Mr Puggsly]

EdStation3 said:

Mr Puggsly said:

 

You seem to assume all HD games will require 15GB of data. Only a few games a year really push the consoles and data to the limit.

As time goes on we'll probably see more games using multiple discs but I doubt, "In 2 years it will be impossible to produce any games on the 360."

Don't forget the 360 does a fantastic job moving software. As long as it keeps doing that, developers will keep finding ways to fit their games on DVDs. Even if it requires multiple disc. Just like developers have done in past generations.

No, I'm not assuming all HD games require 15GB of data.  I'm making the assumption that games require more space as time goes on.  As years pass, more resources are required which is why more poweful systems come out with larger storage capacity.

 

 

Your last point about how they've put it on multiple discs like in the past.  In the past the competition didn't offer a capacity thats over 3 fold bigger and have no choice but it put it on multiple discs.  Now the devs can skip the hassle of multiple discs, and with the PS3 poised to over take the 360 in sales (which is sad because the 360 released about a year earlier) I don't see why devs would support the 360 in a year and a half, especially when the PS3 will have a higher market share and won't limit devs to a tiny.  Devs ditched the N64 and didn't bother making games on mutliple cartridges becasue the competition offered a whopping 800MB vs the N64 80MB(I think).

That being said MS has a history of dropping consoles premature.  PS2 has over twice the lifespan of the Xbox.  I think develops know this.  In conclusion the 360 won't reach 70million in the 1.5-2 year of production it has left.  I predict it will sell 11 million this year and 7 million the next as develops ditch it in favor of the almost 'limitless' resources of the PS3 and Bluray aswell as it's higher marketshare in 2 years.

I'm not trying to bash the 360 either.  58million and a 6 year life cycle is a huge improvement over the 24million and mere 4 year life cycle of the Xbox.

But the competition is the least successful console this generation. Developers can't depend on the PS3 solely therefore they'll always depend on the 360 as well. That means they'll be obliged to fit games on DVDs whether they want to or not.

Developers ditched the N64 because cartrides were expensive and 3rd party sales were weak. Are you aware cartridges are much more expensive than DVDs? So that argument just makes no sense.

MS has a history of only one other console and it wasn't very successful. Supporting the original Xbox any further was pointless. Considering the Xbox 360 is much more successful and has a huge lead over the PS3, it was clearly the right decision.

MS already said they plan to support the 360 for 5 more years and its still doing a great job moving software (both 1st and 3rd party). So its definitely going to around for more than 2 years.