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Hyruken on 15 February 2010
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Aj_habfan said:
Hyruken said:
Bayoneta and Darksiders both were about £25 when i was in town today which would explain the jump up the charts. Interestingly MAG was also in the sale already. Bioshock was also £34 which is about £6 less then normally cost.

I am now prepared to take a guesstimate that MAG has been heavily overtracked on here. It was 50k out almost in the NPD and i am sure now that must also be the same in Europe. Looking at last weeks charts for countries here it is not even in the top 10 and not in the top 10 this week either.

EDIT: Further proof just in. MAG is not even in the top 20 in UK in all formats chart, coming in at 22. And 20 on individual format, and number 6 in PS3 chart.
Right now we have MAG at 470k. I think the number is probably around 300k worldwide.

I don't buy it, it finished 3rd in the UK it's first week, 4th in the second. Our total sales for those two weeks are 150k. The sales in the UK alone should be about 75k, I don't have a hard time beiving that all of others made up the other 50%, when it's usually 75%.

As for the NPD comparison, they had it at 152k and we have 198k, difference of 46k. However, you have to add in the rest of NA to the NPD number. Taking about 10%, that puts it 167k, a difference of 31,000. For all we know it could have been 15% in NA, or NPD was a little higher. Either way, it's very close, and I don't see how it can overtracked by 170k.


I will give my reasoning as to why i think that

Firstly we have to assume the majority of MAG sales come from NA. US is obviously the biggest games market in the world followed by UK and europe.

We know from its first week on sales in US it sold 152k (the recent NPD numbers) and we know in Japan it sold 15k (Fam and Media Create).

We know in europe it was not in the top 5 for a lot of places (check pal charts). In UK in its 1st week it debuted at number 4. Behind for that week MW2 which was 3rd. Mass effect was 1st. Now for that chart it used MW2 sales combined on 360 and PS3. If we go into individual chart for that week we see MAG is 3rd.

The important thing about this data is we know that both MW2 formats combined for that week sold more then MAG. So if we look at MW2 sales for that week in europe we see MW2 360 sold 39k and PS3 sold 47k. A total of 86k for that week.

MAG for that week has a figure of 96k.

Which means something is wrong somewhere. The data means that MAG would of had to have sold more copies in a country that is not the UK. Again looking at the pal charts shows MAG is actually a lot lower in a lot of countries in their charts then it was in the UK.

So we must assume MAG in europe sold more units in UK then any of the other countries. Which means if we take the UK chart as the likely pattern for europe MAG could not have sold more then 86k for that week or it would of been ahead of MW2.

If we go into its 2nd week and assume the tracking from US is 25% over such as the 1st week then that would put its sales at 66k in NA. Add to that the 10k in Japan (from Fam and media create).

Now again with europe requires using the same methods as the 1st week. In a lot of the pal charts MAG has now dropped out of the chart showing popularity has decreased. If we once again use UK chart and use that as the basis for the pattern we see in all formats chart MAG drops to 7th. Again combined sales see MW2 above it aswell as Dantes Inferno and just above it Fifa 10. However in the indivual formats chart we see MAG has dropped only 1 place to 4th.

So what we know here is FIFA 10 on 360 Wii and PS3 sold more copies then MAG. So looking at the weeks numbers we see PS3 fifa10 selling 19k and we see 360 fifa 10 selling 13k, and Wii fifa 10 selling 10k. A total of 42k. Again if the pattern is true across europe then it tells us that MAG could not have sold 50k. Because again this implies that in one of the other countries it would of had to have sold more units then in the UK. Looking at the charts for that week on pal charts shows MAG being 4th was the highest spot, and that was in the UK.

Concluding that in europe the past 2 numbers for mag are either a different country to UK has sold a lot more MAG copies and their charts are wrong. Or it has been overtracked here.

So if we take my method and look at the figures i presented shows for 1st week MAG sold 152k in NA 15k in Japan and under 85k in europe means a 1st week total of 252k. 2nd week sees 66k in NA, 10k in Japan and 40k in europe gives a total of 116k for week 2. Giving a total for MAG of 368k maximum.

Because for the european data i took the games above it figure and deducted 1k. The gap could of course be a lot more then that but to work its potential sales maximum it made more sense to use that.

If we use this weeks numbers just posted we see MAG is not on most PAL charts lists and is number 22 in UK chart. Which concludes that for the past week its sales numbers had to be low to drop 15 places. Next to MAG is Mario and Sonic at the Olympic games. Last week it sold 10k. Have to assume this week then MAG has dropped to below 10k sales in europe. Which means if the numbers last week of 50k were correct then how has it dropped most likely 80% in sales in just 7 days? Unlikely, meaning the numbers were lower then reported.

So that is why i think the game is around the 300k mark. As i said before, it is a lot of guesstimation. But based on the charts available and the sales stats of the game and those around it i would conclude it has been overtracked by around 150k.