Will all 3rd party games go exclusive? Its a mixed possibility. Not all 3rd party games will go multi-plat, or will concentrate on timed exclusives moreso than ever. Again, good example is eM for 360/PS3. It *was* a X360-only exclusive. From Software raked in the cash from the 360 version (and for all we know, MS gave them a few hundred grand for the exclusive rights for 2006, as MS desperately needed this game in Japan). It moved all the units it could, then the PS3 version came out to very weak (but still meaningful) sales. We've seen it with AC4, Oblivion, Splinter Cell, Fight Night Rnd3, and many other titles. Some due to the PS3 just coming out, others because the devs are smart. IMO, I envision that maybe 75% of all 3rd party games will either be totally multiplatform (40%), or 360/PS3 exclusive (35%), or will have a special timed release for it. Why won't all 3rd party games go multi? Money. Although multi-plating is obviously profitable, having special relationship(s) with certain developers can garner special benefits. Gears of War is a great example. Epic made it stick to MS, and MS in turned help cover publisher costs and marketing. It saved Epic some cash, and gave MS the much-needed Holiday 2006 title it so craved. Mistwaker is another very prime example. It's NOT an MS studio. It is developing games for the DS. However, for it's 360-only for console games. Why? MS is bankrolling their games (for millions upon millions of dollars) to increase prestige of games. IMO, most 3rd party games that will stay exclusive will do so because Sony or MS will be paying them off for it. Nintendo most likely wont, as they never have (unless they broke the legs of the devs like they used to). The real test will be the major PS2 exclusives. GH2 made the switch, and I am certain Activision is patting themselves on the back for a game that's nearly sold 500k units in a month (for a game that probably cost them $1.5m to port). Im VERY interested in seeing DMC4 sales for the 360, as well as any sort of S-E title to come to the 360. Likewise, Trusty Bell for PS3 should give it a great boost. I assume Namco-Bandai will release the game on PS3 this holiday (maybe in November) to counteract Lost Odyssey. By that time, TB on 360 will of died, and TB on PS3 could easily sell 200k units and help the near-dead system have a merry Christmas.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
