I don't know, because I have no idea whether Nintendo are likely to keep selling the Wii after they release Wii2/HD. If Nintendo do with Wii what Sony did with PS2 then it's yes, if they do with Wii what they did with GC then no.
PS2 will probably top out at close to 140 million. So according to the OP's predictions for the Wii that means somewhere in 2014 for Wii's target take over date.
I think if Wii2/HD releases at $250 and is profitable from day 1 it's likely that Wii will fall away very quickly, and Nintendo may well discontinue making/selling it inside a year. PS2 could, did and needed to keep on selling because PS3 was so expensive and PS3 was (is) unprofitable. Ninty's only real motivation for continuing to produce Wii after Wii2/HD is released is to unseat PS2, it's a worthy goal to achieve but only if it makes good business sense. Wii could be like PS1, and Wii2/HD could be the real PS2 killer. If Wii2/HD keeps the Wii momentum going then it could well do 200 million.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell
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