Insomniac games would be the worst investment for Sony. They already get what they want from them(exclusive games) and it is unlikely to change anytime soon. If they bought them it would probably lead to a lot of the top level guys leaving to start a new development studio as well as possibly create some animosity(they like their independence) and Sony would have lost a lot of value. They already own the IP's so they wouldn't be buying those. Insomniac makes good games but they're also nothing too special that 2nd party sucker punch or first party Naughty Dog/Santa Monica Studios couldn't replace with a similar game if needed.
I'd say Quantic Dream would be the best or Media Molecule. Both of those developers are much smaller but have a unique style of game they are going after which Sony seems to really covet. Neither of them really have as strong of a relationship with Sony as Sucker Punch or Insomniac does, so the threat of them going multiplat is much greater. Quantic Dream's previous games were multiplat and if Heavy Rain doesn't sell great but has a strong community that loves the game I'd look for Sony to snatch up the developer as a threat to go multiplat next time would be much larger than any other 2nd party developer. Also Sony doesn't want to lose that strong community which they seem to really like. And both developers seem to put out games that are unmatched in style/game type by MS right now so they are good differentiation developers for Sony.
Of course all of this is just superficial as the cost and the willingness of the developer to want to be purchased plays a much bigger part in this and those factors are unknown (other than insomniac stating they like their independence).
Sucker Punch falls under the Insomniac category while United Front and That Game Company are more like MM and QD but to a lesser extent.