October-December 2009 Earnings Reports are coming this week

[TheSource]

Microsoft is at 38.7m X360s through December (5.2m in Oct-Dec) going by their financial report.

Sony...I have PS3 at about 7m for the quarter (34m ltd).  PS2/PSP should be down to ~1.9m and 4.2m. I have sw for Sony at 52m/18m/14m across PS3, PSP and PS2...with the caveat that the PSP figures include whatever games people are buying on the Go.

Moving forward, I think we should expect Wii to remain 50% or so ahead of PS3 per quarter, as that is the pricing difference. At the estimated 7m PS3s vs. 11.3m Wiis for this quarter, you are talking about slightly more than that, which you can attribute to NSMB Wii and the more recent Wii price cut.

Basically, even with huge sw releases on PS3 and not on Wii, or vice versa, for the next three quarters at least, Wii should be on average 50% ahead, with games making it up to 70%, or as low as 30%.

I feel fairly comfortable saying that based on what Wii/PS3 games are arriving in the major markets.

Japan:

Wii/PS3 - Sengoku Basara 3

Wii - The Last Story, Vitality Sensor Game, Kirby, Zelda, Xenoblade, Super Mario Galaxy 2, Metroid Other M, Zangeki no Reginleiv

I'm just guessing here but that will probably be split up like this -

Zangeki (mid-Feb)

Kirby (late March)

Sengoku Basara 3 (April-May?)

Xenoblade (Near Golden Week)

Metroid: Other M (June-July)

Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Aug-Sept)

Vitality Sensor Game (Sept-Oct)

Zelda (Oct-Nov)

The Last Story (Nov-Dec)

There are usually a handfull of third party games that pop up out of nowhere and do well too. For 2009 Koei, Hudson, Sega, Capcom, and Namco seem to be have had the most success on Wii of the publishers. So we could easily see a few fairly big games from them in 2010 for Japan. Monster Hunter 3G, more Samurai Warriors, etc. Could see Level 5 or Square-Enix begin to move from DS too, which might help Wii (or PSP?) but who knows.

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PS3 - End of Eternity, Ar Tonelico 3, Metal Gear Solid, Gran Turismo 5, Ryu no Gotaku 4, FF 13 Vs, FFXIV, Wand Game, whatever else is announced

EoE/AT3: Late January

Sengoku Basara 3 Apr-May?

FFXIII VS - Jun

MGS - Aug

Ryu no Gotaku 4 - Sept

FFXIV - Nov

Wand Game - Nov

GT5 - Dec

There will be more stuff from Sony and third parties. Konami, Square-Enix, Koei seem to have been hurt the least by going from PS2 to PS3.

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For the West you have something like...

Wii: Sin & Punishment 2, Shiren the Wanderer, Monkey Ball (w/ balance board), Endless Ocean 2, Red Steel 2, Monster Hunter 3, Lord of the Rings, Prince of Persia, Samurai Warriors 3, MLB 2k10, Super Mario Galaxy 2, Epic Mickey, NBA Jam, Metroid: Other M, Zelda, and the Vitality Sensor Game, Tiger Woods, Just Dance rip-offs, and more music games are all likely 2010 releases.

There will probably be some big announcements at E3 as well. Scribblenauts, Drawn to Life, Kingdom Hearts, Panzer Dragoon would be my guesses in order of likelihood.

PS3: Bioshock 2, Battlefield: Bad Company, Heaven Rain, MLB 2k10, MLB 10, FFXIII, Yakuza 3, Fifa, Red Dead Redemption, Lost Planet 2, Prince of Persia, Wand Game, The Last Guardian, Metal Gear Solid, Call of Duty next, more music games, third party motion games, Madden, Modnation racing and more are all likely coming.

There will probably be some big announcements at E3 as well. More shooters, EA Sports Active, GTA-next, Tomb Raider, Shinobi would be my guesses in order of likelihood.

Basically, barring any future price cuts for one system and not the other, there is no reason to expect the PS3/Wii situation to change as both systems have strong lineups in 2010.