In all of this analysis of what might happen in 2008 and beyond, I think we should consider something about who is actually going to be purchasing systems in year 2 of a console's life and beyond.
Can we assume that the majority of hardcore gamers will already have bought their primary system of this gen? Therefore surely we have to primarily assess what main-stream gamers, kids and the new 'casual' gamers are going to be buying.
Main-stream gamers: brand loyalty is important and systems with established franchise games they connect with (PS3 has the brand, XBOX360 has the games and momentum from early release, Wii is something new which got me reinvigorated)
Kids: based on peer-pressure / fads / games to a lesser extent (at the moment: Wii, but this could swing)
Casuals: Wii all the way
Taking this into consideration, I would have to say that the Wii doomsayers have flawed arguments. Maybe people could go into this a bit deeper, but I think its an important question: What demographics will the ongoing buyers be from? This will determine if Wii will continue to sell this well.
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