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Roar_Of_War on 20 January 2010
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thetonestarr said:
Roar_Of_War said:
thetonestarr said:
On the contrary, analytics-noob, vastly higher system installbase + previous Zelda game sold 7m on VERY LITTLE installbase = breaking 10m is nearly guaranteed.


Roflmfao. Wishful thinking. Zelda Wii won't be the only game supporting great motion controls by the time of its release. Phantom Hourglass couldn't even break 5 million on the DS - the system with the largest audience of current gen. Even Wii Sports Resort has only just recently gotten itself in the double-digit millions mark. and mind you that part of Twilight Princess' sales are on the gamecube. Why is this? Because not everyone wants their Zelda with forced new controls.

 

Zelda has an audience with people who don't buy things like Wii Sports Resort, or at least with people who would say "If I wanted motion controls, I'd go looking for it somewhere else. If I want Zelda, I expect Zelda!"

 

and to think you suggested 16 million through 18 million? I don't think think so. Zelda will never be that sucessful, as long as its always Zelda. Even if its a hit, its still Zelda, and not everyone is looking for Zelda. Not even Final Fantasy, which is more popular than Zelda. Core franchises like them have their limits, especially when 3D. They aren't accessible enough, even with a fancy new control system.

 

10 million is possible to achieve, but unlikely - and thats just 10 million. You should watch yourself, otherwise Zelda Wii's sales are going to come as a huge shock to you when it releases. I'd spare yourself the disappointment.

I've been keeping an eye on sales figures and analysis for nearly a decade, and following them with deep precision for over three years - ever since I found this site. How long have you been tracking them? According to the site's registration record, you've got less than three weeks under your belt.

With that said, don't you think you could give the benefit of the doubt to me, on the grounds that perhaps I've got more experience in estimating these things by now?

Zelda games have historically sold comparably poorly on handhelds. Link's Awakening pulled six million through two different releases. The Oracle games sold roughly a little less than 4 million each. The re-release of A Link to the Past on GBA sold less than 2 million units, and Minish Cap made only over 1 million total sales. Thus said, trying to use Phantom Hourglass as a method of comparison simply doesn't work.

Meanwhile, Nintendo has stated repeatedly that Zelda Wii will be an entirely new thing, essentially the biggest change to the Zelda equation since Ocarina of Time. And Ocarina sold almost 8m total on a system that capped out at less than HALF the total userbase that the Wii has right now. Just assuming it follows sales trends identical to Ocarina, it would HAVE to sell a minimum of 15m. MINIMUM. And that's only assuming there aren't millions more Wii systems in ownership by that point in time, too.

Additionally, you yourself stated that Zelda Wii won't be the only game SUPPORTING "great motion controls". You have a few things your statement fails to realize:

  • Zelda Wii is merely supposed to SUPPORT WM+, not require it. Sales very much likely won't be capped by WM+ ownership
  • If, for some odd reason, they decide they WILL require WM+, for a title like that, Nintendo is likely to bundle the accessory. Either that, or they'll have done some other method of making ownership of WM+ not as big of an issue, such as...
  • It won't be the only game that supports it. We already have over 12 MILLION units of Wii Sports Resort in consumers' hands, which means over 12 MILLION different systems - minimum - already have access to that form of superior control. Add to that the next ten months of WM+/Sports Resort sales, particularly considering the fact that many, MANY more people will be purchasing them as a result of these future "games supporting great motion controls", and there will be nothing to worry about.
  • Since it's likely that they won't require WM+ to play the game, its sales will only be HELPED by this. You'll get give-or-take every single one of the roughly 7m people that bought Twilight Princess. You'll get the loads of other Zelda fans that didn't buy TP at the time. You'll get the tons of more "core" gamers that are interested in Zelda, but were uncertain or didn't own a Wii when TP was still new. You'll have the casual gamers that enjoyed WM+ usage in Sports Resort, and have heard about Zelda Wii so they want to check it out (and this crowd is most likely to buy Zelda Wii over anything else because it will very clearly be the best, and most family-friendly, title available WITH the "great motion controls"). And you'll have the rest of the gamers that keep an eye on review scores and hype before they go out and buy.

THEN, lastly, you're failing to consider how much larger the Wii's installbase is going to grow, and the fact that Nintendo will likely support Zelda Wii through to the end. I predict 16-18m because it makes sense. Zelda Wii will be the Wii's Diamond and Pearl. All the same types of sales figures, factors, and statistics will apply. Count on it.


You honestly believe Zelda Wii will give an option for not using the motion controls? I guess we'll have to see about that. Also, Wii Sports Resort is the most family-friendly title with "great motion controls". Does that mean it sucks up Zelda Wii's spotlight, since its something easily accessible unlike Zelda? Whether people already with WS:R would rather just stick with it or another game, or if it makes people who haven't played it yet just buy WS:R instead, I would think so. Also, its ALREADY been CONFIRMED Zelda Wii WILL REQUIRE Wii Motion+. It will almost certainly bundle with the little add-on.

 

You also base too much of your judgment on the possible quality, whether the quality of change or the quality in general, of the title. For all we know, its gonna suck ass. For all we know, its going to rule the rest of our lives out of us. You can't base your arguments off the expectation that Zelda Wii will be successful. Zelda might even be slowly dying for all we know, because its certainly happening a little in Japan so far. As I already stated, Zelda has an audience with people who aren't looking for WM+, and if they do desire it, they'll look elsewhere (WS:R, or perhaps Project Natal and Sony's Wand..thing). This may not even hurt the sales of Zelda Wii technically, but it could definitely eat up the potential Zelda Wii could have reached, and give the title a more modest-like amount of sales as standard for its franchise. Not to mention Wii Sports Resort isn't anything overly special in Japan. Its done well, but its not doing all that incredibly. Expect a rise in sales with Wii Sports Resort on Zelda's release, because Japan would rather play something more simple that gives them the same experience, and its most likely the same over here to some extent - but ESPECIALLY in Japan.

 

I find it hard to believe that you, with all your said experience, really think Zelda Wii has that much potential. This game is gonna die in horrible, horrible over-hype, in more ways than one. Okay then. Guess what? I'm gonna take your word for it, and upon release I'll remember what people said about what Zelda Wii's sales were going to breach. With any luck, I'll be eating my words - but I truly doubt it. I would almost be willing to stake my life on the bet that Zelda will never have a title to reach 16 million sales in its lifetime as a franchise. Its completely absurd and laughable to set your expectations that high, but if Zelda Wii can at least make 10 million sales, I'll respect your prediction ability a little.