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@mrstickball: We'll see. In my opinion most of the X360 games have good first day sales compared to first week. Maybe AC6 had some legs but for example Halo 3 sold 45k first day and only 61k in first week and I think that most X360 games sales pattern are closer to Halo 3 than AC6.
Your numbers (35-40k) are of course possible but 50k is way to high prediction.