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I hate Halo since I believe it is overrated, but I firmly believe Halo Reach will outsell GT5 by a large number.

GT has lost a lot of customers to Forza, whilst Halo still has its die hard fanbase that no one so far has been unable to take away from.

Secondly, EU+Americas is bigger than Japan and Halo will probably shift big numbers in EU+Americas since they enjoy FPS.

GT on the other hand will probably do big numbers in EU and Japan.

However, if Sony are clever, they will use Top Gear to promote the game (since the Top Gear track is present) and if this happens, you may get a decent portion of the top gear fan base (over 100,000,000 world wide) buy the game.