Well although a good attempt at trying to guesstimate costs but still off on a few key concepts. First and foremost, it's unlikely development costs were that high. Even some of the biggest productions in recent years have generally only been in the $40-$60 million range. So it's doubtful FF13 is out of that range. However, you have grossly under estimated marketing. Generally if you spend that much on development, you are going to spend a hell of a lot more on marketing. Now I'm not good at guesstimating single territory but I'd say well over $50 million is probably a given considering how long this game has been hyped for due to how long it has been in the media.
Finally, when publishers sell games to retailers, they generally sell it at almost what they will sell it on the market. At least I know that to be the case in America thanks to some analysis on Gamestop profits and revenues. In Japan though, I wouldn't assume it to be too far off and at least in the 90th percentile. Meaning at the least they sell it for 90% of what the retailers are going to sell it for.
Now obviously this is all rough and once again it is hard to guesstimate this and really only the publishers themselves will no the exact number. But I think we can safely say that development costs, marketing in Japan (among other thins which is worldwide right now), and other expenditures would easily put the total money spent on this game is at the very least right now $100 million. Factor in the rest of the world when all that goes full force and at least $150 million for the total costs. That is about the norm for big games like FF13.
Hope this helps just a little bit but remember this isn't an exact science and purely speculative.
