The war will be won on the price front. The fact that the numbers can vary so drastically week to week only highlights how low the adoption rate among consumers actually is. Thats why a major sale, or a video game console can alter the landscape.
High definition televisions are still too expensive for the most part. The players are still too expensive for the most part. The recent HD-DVD sale at WalMart for example did prove that if the prices are low enough however the demand will materialize. Right now however the gamble on the player front is still too high.
There is a window for widespread adoption for one of the formats, and that window is the upcoming year. Otherwise a new better format will have a chance to enter the race. Technically both formats are dated. New data storage has seen a upsurge in development.
Neither side is going to back down now. They are both too vested, and both feel they are in a strong position to win. Sony is trying to use a console to win adoption. While Toshiba is driving down the prices of their stand alone player. However that is a moot point. Neither would see a significant spike in adopter were the other to leave the market. The sales point of neither is wholly competitive at the moment. The PS3 just doesn't have the games to compel a million unit selling months. While Toshiba has yet to drive prices down low enough.
The war will be won in the wallet.
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