I think Nintendo's going to win off momentum built up from this generation. 3rd parties will know from the beginning that what Nintendo puts out should be worth investing, they'll have the edge in brand awareness among the mass market, and with the third parties on board this time, Nintendo should shore up what was, this gen, their greatest weakness.
Microsoft and Sony will just be catching up, so Nintendo should come out ahead, unless someone else does something unforeseeable.
Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.