Analyst - PS3 to see 10% GAIN in 2010, Wii60 to DECLINE! (Wii 20%, 360 5%)

[dunno001]

Eh, what the hey, I'll give my predictions-

Wii: The article got one thing right- Iwata saying that they got the momentum back. (How much is still yet to be seen, but if done right, they can harness it.) And if Nintendo thinks they got their momentum back, they're not going to drop the ball as badly as they did in late 2008. They're going to keep pushing games. At the beginning of 2010, Nintendo has more motion forward than they did with 2009, and coupled with the price cut means that the first half of 2010 will easily beat first half 2009. I think things will see a bit of correction in the second half, specifically in December, when I think that December 2010 will be lower than Dec 2009. However, I still see the Wii up a fair bit from 2009, I'm guessing slightly above 2008 numbers for the year.

PS3: The momentum of this system was basically killed by NSMBWii, but they're going to be firing off some big bullets early in 2010, hoping to regain this momentum. First half of 2010 will also easily surpass 2009, with January riding what's left of the slim and pricecut, as well as Sony's shortages on the 120s. The games in February and March I think will help carry the PS3 through to the end of June. However, I don't think that their wands are going to do much, as the casual market which they are aimed at will see them as Wiimote clones. Second half of 2010 will be down from 2009, as they won't have another price cut and redesign to match. With the second half of the year being bigger for sales, I think after 2010 is done, Sony will be down about 10% from 2009, but still marginally ahead of 2008.

360: This system has the least momentum right now. Its few huge games that are launching in early 2010 I think are going to go back to the traditional HD model, and cause spikes. With nothing in the first half to sustain sales, I think that 360 will be down for this period versus 2009. The second half will really be dependant on when Natal launches. I do see a 360 price cut when Natal launches, which will create an increased buzz. If there is a fall launch, I think that the buzz will carry through the holidays, and the second half will be up from 2009, to the tune of 5-10%. If, however, it launches too late (December), then it will be a great month (or 2) in the year, but still not enough to erase the downage, keeping the 360 down for the year, probably about 5-10%, in the range that the article suggests. If it doesn't launch at all in 2010, I see the 360 down significantly, perhaps as much as 20%. Natal will also factor most into 2011 for MS. If it sees no compelling games, the 720 will be announced in 2011 for a 2012 release, effectively killing 2011 sales. If it does well, then I see them trying to carry momentum in 2011, but this is getting out of the scope of 2010.

PS2: It has nowhere to go but down. I'll be honest- I think as Sony tries to push the PS3, the PS2 will slowly fade out. If they can get the PS3 hardware to profitability (and I think they might, finally), I see the PS2 getting dropped entirerly. In all truthfulness, I don't think the PS2 will make it out of 2010 alive- remaining sales will be solely what Sony has in their warehouse (which will sell out in 2011).

PSP: This is another sad case. Outside of Japan, this system is on life support. Aside from a few huge titles, nothing hits 1 million on this thing. Porting games to this outside of Japan will be seen as a risk by more publishers, leading to fewer games and fewer sales. The PSPGo failed to move the market, and even if a PSP-4000 comes out (which I think it will, despite Sony's denial), I still see PSP sales down 20-25% from 2009. I expect to see PSP2 announced at TGS.

DS: This is, without a doubt, the hardest system to predict. In January 2009, I would have not predicted that the DS would go on to continue to break sales records. Nonetheless, I am going to reiterate that for 2010. 2009 had the benefit of DSi actually being successful, which, going by Japan's numbers (and love of redesigns), the DSiLL will not do. There will be a sales spike upon launch, yes, but the higher price is going to put off many people who would consider it, and this will lower sales in 2010 versus 2009, possibly by as much as 10%. I do think that Nintendo is working on DS2, and despite seeing Sony's announcement, I do not see Nintendo's announcement is coming this year. That'll be early 2011.