Actually, Bruce on games did an expert analysis on the November NPD numbers to come to the determination that the wii is a casual fad. It's all laid out here.
http://www.bruceongames.com/2009/12/16/a-true-measure-of-microsoft-xbox-360-success/
It should be noted that he is a veteran video game marketer so his opinion is worth the opinion of three internet fanboys.